A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
